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Foreign countries’ economic situation

“Economic conditions refer to the state of the economy in a country or region. They change over time in line with the economic and business cycles, as an economy goes through expansion and contraction. Economic conditions are considered to be sound or positive when an economy is expanding and are considered to be adverse or negative when an economy is contracting”. (economic conditions, s.f.)
 

First of all, is quite important to mention the financial world presented in 2008. In this terms, the financial world experienced a huge change after the economic slowdown led by the US in 2008. Well-known financial organizations and enterprises closed down and there were other companies that had to take drastic measures like suspending certain business operations or laying off massive number of employees, due to economic crisis. "Business establishments, world over, have responded in, more or less, same ways to ongoing global financial crisis. Most of them have suspended business wings that have not been profitable, and put new projects on hold. (...) This global crisis has affected consumer spending and caused a sharp decrease in amount of money being spent by people all over world." (ECONOMY WATCH, 2010). This situation continues to affect the economies of the world.

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In the other hand, the performance of economies in the world took place this way:

Regardly, advanced economies it was seen in the United States a significant growth as the economy was close to full employment by the end of 2016. In the euro area, the gross domestic product remains below its potential level and the growth was certainly better than the forecasts given in economies such as Spain and the United Kingdom, as their internal demands remained constant after the vote in favor of the exit of the united kingdom of the European Union. While in Japan and China growth rates exceeded estimates in 2016.

On the other hand, emerging market economies and developing economic nations were characterized by being weaker than expected. In Latin American countries such as Brazil and Argentina and also Turkey, tourism revenues were affected, while in Russia happened the opposite effect thanks to the strengthening of oil prices.

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Prices of raw materials and inflation:

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Overall, Oil prices rose in recent weeks as a result of an agreement among major producers to cut supply. Given the vigor of investment in infrastructure in China and expectations of fiscal expansion in the United States, and the prices of base metals have also strengthened. In recent months general inflation rates recovered in the advanced economies due to low commodity prices, but underlying inflation rates have remained largely unchanged and generally below target levels of inflation. Inflation rose slightly in China as capacity cuts and rising commodity prices pushed producer price inflation to positive ground after more than four years of deflation. (El cambiante panorama de la economía mundial , 2017)

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Evolution of financial markets:

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The Interest rates especially in the United States and the UK in the long term have been increasing since late 2016 due to the United States elections in November. The US Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates in December, as expected, but in most other advanced economies the direction of monetary policy has remained unchanged. Specifically, a more expansive orientation of US fiscal policy is projected

In emerging market economies, financial conditions remained relatively stable despite of their worsen in general terms. Long-term interest rates, especially in the emerging economies of Europe and Latin America remain stable; and the increase in long-term yields observed in the euro area in the middle of 2016 were more moderate.

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Exchange Rates and Capital Flows:

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By mid of 2016 the value of the US dollar increased (has been revalued) by 6%, and the value of advanced commodity export economies has strengthened due to the strengthening of commodity prices. In recent months, the euro, the Japanese yen and the currencies of several emerging countries such as the Turkish lira and the Mexican peso have devalued. However some forecasts point to large outflows of foreign investors in emerging markets due to the elections in the United States.

Finally, there are four key factors in the medium-term prospects for the future: the UK's decision to leave the European Union, Donald Trump's arrival to the White House, the ongoing process of the Chinese economy and the persistent fall in commodity prices.

Consequently, the International Monetary Fund estimates global economic growth of 3.4% by 2017, but there is still a risk of blockage in developed countries due to weak aggregate demand, high unemployment rates, and low inflation rates. As well as problems arising from the world financial crisis in 2008.

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Indicators of economic conditions provide important insights to investors, managers, business, stakeholder, etc. Managers use those indicators of economic conditions to adjust their views on economic growth and profitability and to evaluate their strategies to achieve their long and short term objective. Thus, an improvement in economic conditions would lead businesses and stakeholders to be more optimistic about the future and potentially invest more as they expect positive returns. The opposite could be true if economic conditions worsen.

 

On the other hand, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 left several consequences for countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, it affected the performance of many economies worldwide, and cast doubt on the economic policies adopted by several governments in the world, which makes that currently the consequences are still being seen.

 

References:

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